Can Craig Berube’s first year coaching clout move Leaf playoff needle?

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Before the Maple Leafs played one game under Craig Berube, the new coach heard some dire predictions from many fans and the media. 

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The club’s coddled Core Four would be resistant to his hardball ways, the defence was too weak a link, depth was not adequate to compensate for injuries. Joseph Woll, Anthony Stolarz, Auston Matthews, Max Pacioretty and Calle Jarnkrok did end up missing time of varying significance. 

Berube’s honeymoon was shortened when the Leafs reached early November below .500 and the power play went south, just before Rocket Richard Trophy winner Auston Matthews disappeared to Germany to get a mystery ailment checked. 

But earlier this week, Berube’s new-look Leafs reached 40 wins, making him just the fifth Toronto coach to do that in Year 1.

Now, with 13 games remaining and very much in the first-place fight in the Atlantic Division, the next task is turning that into a long playoff run. Until recently, that was a sustainable goal for first-year Toronto coaches, looking back to how a strong autumn and winter held up in spring:  

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Roger Neilson, 1977-78 

First-year record: 41-29-10 (80 games) 

Path to success: Neilson was a pioneer of the pre-scout, using video, early analytics and any loophole in the NHL rulebook … His players didn’t fully understand their cerebral coach, but all bought in …  Darryl Sittler and Lanny McDonald combined for 204 points, Sittler and Borje Salming were second team all-stars … Defence and physicality also made the Leafs a hard team to play against. 

Playoffs: Toronto outscored Los Angeles 11-4 in the best-of-three preliminary, then matched the tenacity of the New York Islanders. The Leafs allowe∂ just six goals in the final five games, taking Game 7 in overtime. It was Toronto’s first best-of-seven series win since the 1967 Cup final, but the Montreal Canadiens avenged that by sweeping the Leafs in pursuit of their own third of four straight titles.   

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Pat Burns, 1992-93 

First year record: 44-29-11 (84 games) 

Path to success: Burns’ general manager Cliff Fletcher, the first exec fully free of late owner Harold Ballard’s meddling, rebuilt the non-playoff club in a two-year stretch with bold trades, topped by hiring the no-nonsense former cop and coach of the Habs … Burns jumped the Leafs a record 32 points in just one year … He unleashed Doug Gilmour on both sides of the puck, for a club record 127 points and a Frank Selke Trophy … Burns pushed the right buttons with big forwards and defence, the franchise’s only Jack Adams Trophy winner. 

Playoffs: From a terrible start, twice blown out by Detroit,  Leafs went on a record run of three seven-game series in 42 days, defeating the Wings. St. Louis Blues and – almost – Wayne Gretzky’s Kings … Toronto has not been that close to the Cup final since. 

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Pat Quinn, 1998-99 

First-year record: 45-30-7 (82 games) 

Path to success: Like Burns, he inherited a team that missed the playoffs the previous two years … Old school Quinn preached opening play up for stars such as Mats Sundin and Sergei Berezin to flourish … New No. 1 goalie Curtis Joseph won 35 games … The team adopted Quinn’s combative nature towards referees and though he often ran afoul of league regulations when restricting media access he was adamant his players not take years of public exaltation for granted, that they earn such adulation.  

Playoffs: Starting with a shutdown series against Philadelphia with 20 total goals in six games, Toronto also took out Jaromir Jagr and the Pittsburgh Penguins in six. But a long layoff saw Leafs stumble against the beatable Buffalo Sabres, falling in five in the conference final. 

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Sheldon Keefe, 2021-22 

First year record: 54-21-8 (82 games) 

Path to success: We’re stretching it a bit here, as Keefe took over for Mike Babcock during the ‘19-20 season and was limited to just 56 games within Canada the following year by the pandemic. But this full slate put him on the road to being the first Toronto coach with three straight 100-point campaigns … High draft picks Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander all came of age, Matthews winning the Richard Trophy with 60 goals and hart Trophy, he and Marner named first-team all-stars … Keefe’s Leafs usually scored their way out of trouble. 

Playoffs: After being heavy favourites in their previous two first-round series against Columbus and Montreal — losing both — the Leafs ran into Jon Cooper’s two-time champion Tampa Bay Lightning. A deceivingly easy 5-0 win in Game 1 turned into a seven-game marathon, Leafs dropping the final two matches by one-goal margins. 

Lhornby@postmedia.com 

X: @sunhornby  

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