If you want to win prizes from the Tim Hortons Roll Up To Win game this year, a University of Waterloo associate professor says the best time to play online is in the morning on weekends.
“I had the most success at 8:30 a.m. [on] the weekend, winning around one time in three,” Michael Wallace, who’s in the University of Waterloo’s Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, told CBC News.
Almost every year since the coffee chain’s game moved to a digital platform, Wallace has been using data Tim Hortons publishes on its website to try to figure out the best time to play for the highest winning rate.
In 2023, Wallace said he won three out of four times at 3 a.m., the best time to play at least for that year. That’s a winning rate of 75 per cent. He said he did not do the math for 2024.
Paper cups are back
Wallace said the game was simpler when it was just the physical cups.
“You bought a drink, you got the cup, you roll up the rim,” he said. “Your odds are one in six and there’s nothing you could really do about it.”
In 2020, the game moved to a digital app, but this year, Tim Hortons decided to bring back the paper cups while still keeping the digital version of the game.
With the physical cups added into the equation, Wallace said players have had to strategize a little more. He said players had to choose where they would get the highest chances of winning.
“Are you better off getting that extra digital entry, or are you better off with those one in six odds on the paper cup?” he said.
Austin Adair, who plays the game, who spoke to CBC News as he was about to go into the downtown Kitchener, Ont., Tim Hortons.
Adair said he was surprised to learn that someone had figured out strategies for the highest winning rates.
“That’s actually kind of cool,” he said. “I find myself getting more nothing than I do a free coffee or a doughnut even.”
With winning rates on paper cups being low, Wallace said players can get digital entries instead and play when the winning chances are higher.
He said the best time to play this year appears to be around 8:30 a.m. during weekends, when — according to his calculations — a person’s chances of winning are about one in three.
Adair said it’s nice people are still paying attention and playing the game.
“It’s just overall great to see that some people are [still] having fun.”
Changes to prizes distribution
Wallace also noticed how Tim Hortons redistributed the prizes this year so more of them “are available when more people are playing.”
He said 3 a.m. is no longer a good time to play, unlike in previous years when the game was fully digital. This year, the winning rate at 3 a.m. is one in nine, or about 11 per cent.
“Fewer prizes are available, say, in the middle of the night, when fewer people are playing,” he said. “[It’s] drastically more complicated, the strategies in terms of when to time your entries to maximize your own chances of winning.”
Tim Hortons says it appreciates the “passion” behind Wallace’s efforts.
“We know there are many Roll Up enthusiasts like Prof. Wallace who are committed to playing the game every year, and we appreciate their passion for maximizing all the ways they can earn rolls,” a Tim Hortons media representative told CBC News in an email.
Wallace said that even in previous years, Tim Hortons has not expressed any concern about what he’s been doing.
“Once we sort of had a chat and established what was going on, they were really helpful,” he said. “They actually helped donate some of my prizes to charity … that was really good of them.”
LISTEN | University of Waterloo’s Michael Wallace increases odds of getting a Roll Up To Win prize:MEDIA]
Not in it for the prizes
The Tim Hortons Roll Up To Win game this year features a wide range of prizes, including fully electric vehicles, all-inclusive trips, electronics, gift cards, coffee, doughnuts and Timbits.
Despite his strategies, Wallace said he’s mostly won coffees and doughnuts throughout the years. In fact, he said, he actually won his biggest prize this year.
“For the first time ever, I won something bigger than a coffee or a doughnut,” he said. “You got to hold on to your hats … I won a $25 Tim Hortons gift card.”
Wallace said he’s not trying to crack the game for the prizes.
“As I said, you’re only really going to win coffee and doughnuts,” he said. “I mainly do this because I’m just sort of curious about the numbers … [and] because it gives me really good stories and examples I can use in my statistics class.”
Tim Hortons said in its email that it’s “proud Roll Up has become an exciting way for the professor to introduce his students to the world of statistics and probabilities.”
Roll Up To Win runs until March 23. Prizes must be claimed by May 4.
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